An orange island in East Van, as Liberals make big gains at NDP’s expense in Metro Vancouver

What happened: In Monday’s federal election, the Liberals took four Vancouver ridings, while the New Democrats won two, and the Conservatives captured the Marpole neighbourhood, which was joined with the Richmond Centre riding in 2022. 

Orange island: East Van was one of the few bright spots for the NDP nationwide, with Jenny Kwan comfortably hanging on to her Vancouver East seat. Meanwhile, Don Davies eked out another term in office representing nearby Vancouver Kingsway. Davies beat out Liberal challenger Amy Gill by about 300 votes in a tight race that wasn’t called until Tuesday afternoon, according to CBC.  

• We had covered how close these seats were in our exclusive story on Friday. 

Metro Van microcosm: The national trend of orange ridings going red and red ridings going blue played out across the Lower Mainland, with the Liberals picking up seats in Burnaby Central, New Westminster-Burnaby-Maillardville, and Port Moody-Coquitlam, which the NDP had previously held. 

• NDP leader Jagmeet Singh lost his seat in Burnaby Central handily, getting only 18 per cent of votes in the riding. Singh stepped down as NDP leader on Monday night. Bonita Zarrillo, another NDP incumbent, also got trounced, finishing in a distant third place. 

Meanwhile, Richmond Centre-Marpole went from red to blue as the Liberals and Conservatives jockeyed at the top of the polls in most Metro Vancouver ridings. 

Two-horse race: Aside from Kwan and Davies holding East Van, there was only one other riding in Metro Vancouver where Liberal and Conservative candidates didn’t finish first and second in the polls.

Zoom out: The Liberal Party, now led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, won a 4th consecutive federal election on Monday. Their electoral success, in spite of significant gains made by the Conservative Party, was predicated on the precipitous fall of the NDP.

• The Conservatives gained 25 seats, while the Liberals picked up nine and the NDP lost 18, in comparison to the 2021 election. 

However, those Conservative gains were somewhat overshadowed by party leader Pierre Polievre’s unexpected loss in his longtime Ottawa-area riding. Polievre’s loss underscores the sudden and monumental shift in support from Conservatives to Liberals, which was driven by US President Donald Trump’s tariff and annexation threats. 

Meet your new representatives: Alongside successful incumbents like Hedy Fry, Taleeb Noormohamed, Kwan, and Davies, Vancouver residents will have some new Members of Parliament representing them in Ottawa. 

Wade Grant (Liberal): Grant, taking over from longtime Vancouver Quadra MP Joyce Murray, is a Musqueam member who served as an elected councillor with the Band for ten years. Grant grew up on Vancouver’s westside and studied political science and law at UBC. 

• In the 2010s Grant served as a member of the Vancouver Police Board, and was a special advisor to Premier Christy Clark, among many leadership roles. Prior to his election, Grant worked as an intergovernmental affairs officer for the Musqueam government, was a member of Mayor Ken Sim’s Budget Task Force, and was the Chair of the First Nations Health Council, according to his LinkedIn profile.  

As an MP, Grant is “committed to building more affordable housing, accelerating climate action, advancing reconciliation,” and protecting progress on child care, dental care and inclusive economic growth, according to his Liberal Party website.

Gregor Robertson (Liberal): A household name to most Vancouverites, Robertson was the city’s mayor from 2008 to 2018. Robertson and his party, Vision Vancouver, were known for expanding the city’s bike lane network, securing funding for the Broadway Skytrain extension, and creating the Greenest City 2020 Action Plan, which hit eight of its 18 targets. 

• Meanwhile, the price of housing in the city skyrocketed between 2008 and 2018, and the number of people experiencing homelessness in Vancouver increased during Robertson’s term as mayor. In 2008, Robertson infamously campaigned on a promise to end homelessness in Vancouver by 2015.

Prior to becoming mayor, Robertson was elected as a provincial MLA with the BC NDP, representing Vancouver Fairview. Since then, he’s worked as a VP for a construction technology company focusing on sustainable development, and as an ambassador for an alliance of local governments addressing climate change, according to his LinkedIn profile.

Robertson’s Liberal website profile says that as an MP he’ll “be a strong voice for the middle class, for good jobs, thriving small businesses, and a better future for everyone.”

Chak Au (Conservative): Au will be the first representative of the new Richmond Centre-Marpole riding, which was extended to include the South Van neighbourhood in 2022. 

Au has a long history in local politics, serving in municipal government for the past 26 years. Au has been a Richmond city councillor for the past 14 years after 12 years as a Richmond school trustee. 

• Au’s biography highlights his background as a multiculturalism, humanitarian, and anti-racism advocate in Richmond, Canada, and China. Au’s professional background is as a family therapist and teacher, informing his work as a counselling program leader with Vancouver Coastal Health. 

According to his election website, Au “advocates for fiscal responsibility, accountable government, and support for free enterprise and hard work.” Au also lists several hard-on-crime priorities like bail reform, life sentences for fentanyl traffickers, and banning hard drugs. 

Leadership questions: With Singh stepping down, Premier David Eby said he doesn’t have any interest in being the leader of the federal party, according to CBC. 

• “I do hope that someone steps up to run for the federal party that has a commitment to bringing Canadians together, a commitment to rebuilding the party, and ensuring that the federal NDP can play an important role in the future of Canada,” Eby said on Tuesday. 

Eby added he would like to see Prime Minister Carney work with the premiers to get rid of internal trade barriers among provinces. 

What it means: By only winning seven seats across the country, the NDP fell short of the 12 seats required to have official party status. That could reduce the Vancouver-based NDP MP’s capacity to advocate for our local communities. 

Losing that status means Kwan and Davies are unlikely to be able to sit on any committees, won’t be able to ask as many questions in question period, and will have a significant financial disadvantage when it comes to research and expenses, according to the Toronto Star. 

• However, with the Liberals three seats short of a majority government the NDP could still retain a small amount of power by backing Carney and the Liberals. Nevertheless, after losing 18 seats and their leader, the New Democrats are emerging from the election as a shadow of their former self.

Geoff’s thoughts: Lookout managing editor Geoff jumping in here. I had a few observations to share based on Nate’s story and everything we saw this election.

Want higher voter turnout? The election has to matter: 68 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot in this election, compared to 62.6 per cent in the last election. In the recent Vancouver by-election, voter turnout was 40 per cent higher than in 2017. Are they related? I would say that in both cases, voters felt it was an election where it “mattered.”

Gregor is back: We won’t know the cabinet yet, but someone like Gregor Robertson would be an interesting addition. Whatever people feel about him, he would bring a viewpoint of the needs of big cities that would be a welcome addition to Carney’s cabinet.

Should the provincial NDP be worried?: Premier David Eby threw his backing behind the federal NDP. And the party lost ten seats in B.C. It raises questions about whether the NDP’s brand may be in trouble in the province. With that said, we shouldn’t have to worry about another provincial election anytime soon, and the federal NDP did manage to hold on to three seats in B.C., pending any recount.