Cracks in the East Van stronghold

With just a few days to go before the federal election, all eyes are on the two front-running parties. As of Thursday, April 24, polls have the Liberals leading nationally with 42.2 per cent of the vote compared to the Conservatives at 38.5 per cent. Meanwhile, the NDP languishes far behind, sitting at 8.8 per cent. The NDP won about 18 per cent of the popular vote in 2021. 

In East Van, national trends and an existential threat from down south appear to be translating into substantial Liberal gains. 

With Canadian sovereignty threatened and tariffs still looming, Vancouver East Liberal supporter Thomas Panos says there is a growing feeling among lifelong NDP voters in his circle that Mark Carney, with his long and illustrious CV, is “just the right man for the moment.” 

“I don’t want to say they’re holding their noses,” Panos said of his more left-leaning friends, “but they’re going to vote Liberal this time, because of the existential threat that we’re facing. It has much less to do with strategically voting against Pollievre, and it’s more like asking ‘who do we think can help us the most?’”

NDP incumbents Don Davies and Jenny Kwan have held their Vancouver Kingsway and Vancouver East seats since 2008 and 2015, respectively, and both ridings are considered orange strongholds. Historically, Vancouver East has gone NDP since the party was founded in 1961, with just two one-term Liberal MP’s breaking up their dominance. Prior to Davies, Kingsway voters picked Liberal representatives for the previous decade but have also largely chosen NDP MPs since the 60s.

However, Kingsway is now being called a “toss-up,” and Vancouver East is seeing Liberal support grow steadily, according to strategic voting resource SmartVoting. 

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