What’s the secret sauce in housing models?

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Good morning,

A big thank you to everyone who completed our end of year survey.

You told us you wanted more breakdowns of the day’s biggest issues, deep dives into the future of Vancouver, more info about what other cities are doing as it relates to Vancouver and, my personal favourite, more restaurant reviews.

There were so many great responses from readers. I’ve read them all, and they’ve given me a lot of ideas for 2024. More info on that soon.

We’ve also got local reporter Dustin Godfrey chipping in on a few stories today. A big thanks to Dustin for helping out.

Today we’ve got:

• 🏠 An update on the province’s passing of their signature housing policy

• 🌳 Why park fees are going up

• 📅 Weekend events to check out

Let’s get to it!

— Geoff Sharpe, Vancity Lookout editor

If you find this newsletter valuable, please consider forwarding it to your friends. New to the Lookout? Sign-up for free.

WEATHER

Friday: 22 🌡️ 14 | 🌧️

Saturday: 18 🌡️ 13 | 🌧️

Sunday: 21 🌡️ 12 | 🌤️

Monday: 21 🌡️ 12 | 🌤️

HOUSING

What’s the secret sauce in housing models?

What’s going on: Opposition MLAs have been railing against what they say is a lack of transparency in economic modelling around housing bills introduced by the BC NDP. Green MLA Adam Olsen last week called it a “chaotic legislative agenda” and said democracy was “teetering” due to the lack of transparency, according to Black Press. Specifically, he said MLAs should get a chance to examine the modelling before voting on the bills based on it.

Now, the Vancouver Sun reports that the consultants on the province’s housing bills have been sworn to secrecy through non-disclosure agreements.

Background: The NDP brought in a range of housing legislation in the last couple of months, including strict regulations on short-term rentals, as well as blanket upzoning for most neighbourhoods in Vancouver and elsewhere. Specifically, single-family housing neighourhoods will be able to house four to six units per lot, while areas within 800 metres of major transit stops will be able to house towers of up to eight to 20 storeys.

Here in Vancouver: Politicians haven’t said much in the city about the housing legislation, but one housing expert has raised concerns about how the upzoning around transit could lead to demovictions if left unaltered, according to CityNews. SFU urban planner Andy Yan is quoted in the Vancouver Sun as saying it has the potential to be Metrotown 2.0.

What the modelling says: Housing Minister Ravi Kahlon told the legislature on Nov. 20 that housing prices could drop seven to 14 percent over the next five years from these measures. As the Sun reported last week, the claim is that the changes will lead to 130,000 small-scale multi-unit homes being built in the next decade. Kahlon also said the reduced prices would come from reduced land costs for smaller units.

• But ever since, opposition and others have asked where those figures came from.

Are the numbers reliable?: That remains to be seen — hence Olsen’s frustration. But the Urban Development Institute, which represents the real estate and building industry across the province, and which wasn’t involved in the modelling, told the Sun that land is only about 15 percent of the costs of development, compared with about 50 percent a few years ago.

What would be needed, said UDI’s president, is for the actual costs of building the housing, including construction, fees and taxes.

What about the short term?: That’s not looking great. ReMax Canada’s most recent projection suggests local real estate could see a two percent increase in prices next year and a three percent drop in sales, Business in Vancouver reported. It’s not clear if this modelling takes the new provincial legislation into account.

— By Dustin Godfrey

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VANCOUVER NUMBERS

🧒 15,000: There’s this much of a shortfall of childcare spaces in Vancouver as the city seeks to overhaul rules to make them easier to build. [Vancouver Sun]

🦠 10 percent: The amount of antibody therapy firm AbCellera’s workforce being laid off, or about 63 employees. The Vancouver company helped develop the first antibody treatment for COVID-19. [CBC]

PARKS

Park fee hike incoming

IWhat happened: The Vancouver Park Board approved fee hikes on Tuesday evening, an average of six percent, across a range of services for next year to address increased operating costs, according to CBC. 

Background: The fee increases come as city council hiked a number of fees across the city, including parking and business registration. It’s part of a trend as all levels of government try to tackle cost increases associated with inflation. 

• Fees at major public services are all going up, including public golf courses, the VanDusen Botanical Garden and the Stanley Park Train, according to the Vancouver Sun. Anyone hosting special events will also see a higher fee.

The Parks Board says it should generate an additional $5.44 million next year.

Zoom out: The fee increase comes after Vancouver’s auditor general suggested the parks board could improve how it deals with and collects user fees. The audit suggested the board lacks a framework for how facilities can meet revenue-related goals through fee collection, according to Global News. 

• Fees aren’t determined based on performance metrics, and there’s little formal process to decide what fees and how much should be charged.

A big concern: Former city councillor George Affleck raised concerns that the city may be setting up a situation to expand private businesses inside parks, or dismantle the park board entirely. 

• The park board vice-chair disagreed with those conjectures and noted it was more of a performance audit rather than a financial audit.

What’s next: The Stanley Park Mobility Study that was recently released has a number of recommendations to reduce vehicle traffic in the park, including charging a vehicle access fee, according to Urbanized. It should be noted this is a study and not an actual policy that will be implemented.

THE AGENDA

🤝 It’s getting harder and harder to find space to live… and book meetings. Event space is increasingly hard to come by in the region due to a lack of bookable space and high demand. [Business in Vancouver]

👮 Reports about an alleged sex assault that circulated online earlier in November were investigated by police and their findings indicate it was not factually correct. After interviewing people and reviewing video footage, they say the woman in question fell off a scooter. [Vancouver Sun]

⛺ Homeless advocates are calling on the city to stop street sweeps and removals of people sleeping in parks and sidewalks. The Vancouver Park Board said some of the allegations, including that rangers took belongings from unhoused people, are not true. [CBC]

👮 Got business at city hall? You may notice some extra security measures in place. To get in, you’ll now have to pass through a metal detector and have your bags checked. [CityNews]

💸 We know this isn’t in Vancouver, but we had to include it. A court found an 88-year-old man in Mission has a “reasonable prospect of success” in his claim to millions in family assets — from the wife he abruptly left for Roswell, New Mexico after 48 years with only a goodbye note. Maybe he was swept away by UFOs. [Vancouver Sun]

🚒 Vancouver firefighters were kept busy with a fire downtown. After an alarm went off, crews found a fire in a unit of a building around West Pender and Richards streets, and were able to put it out. No cause of the fire has been released. [CityNews]

🩺 Six months into a program to send cancer patients south of the border for radiation therapy, only 12 patients per week — out of the pledged 50 per week — are making the trip. [CTV]

🚨 There were 155 homicides in BC last year, 30 more than in 2021 and 55 more than in 2020, according to Statistics Canada. The 21 percent increase in BC is well over the eight percent rise across Canada. [CTV]

🛩️ Did you pass through YVR on Nov. 23? The BC CDC is warning of a potential measles exposure, as a passenger with the virus passed through that day. [Vancouver Sun]

♿️ Vancouver isn’t keeping up with accessibility needs, according to new research. A study found 60 percent of public spaces in Calgary, Vancouver and Ottawa are not accessible for people with disabilities. [Business in Vancouver]

MEMBERS ONLY

Who's up, who's down: Housing, Shaughnessy and Twitter

Who’s up and down? Who’s getting attention, and who’s doing it in the wrong way? Who’s making an impact on city hall?

Our new regular series looks at the key people and players who we think are trending higher or trending lower. It’s not scientific (yet) and we hope to include more key people’s opinions in future ones. For now, it’s just my thoughts. 

Who’s up

👍️ Ravi Khalon and the provincial government

Truly the biggest winner since we last did this series is the provincial government’s housing strategy, led by the Minister of Housing Ravi Kahlon. 

To read this story you must be a member. Consider becoming a member to support local media today.

EVENTS GUIDE

Vancouver Night Market | Robson Plaza | Dec. 1, 6 pm-8 pm | More than 30 food trucks and vendors, buy some art or vintage goods | Free

Gingerbread Man Decoration | 1939 Cornwall Ave. | Dec. 1, 6 pm-8 pm | Let your imagination run wild with gingerbread creation | Tickets $22

Jazz Feeds Vancouver | La Fabrique St-George Winery | Starting Dec. 2, 2 pm | Listen to jazz for a good cause all month long, with 11 different concerts around town with money going to the Greater Vancouver Food Bank | Tickets $12

Lebanese Feast Nights - North Vancouver | Jamjar Canteen North Vancouver | Dec 2, 16 and 23, 5:30 pm | Tickets $42

Holiday Market | 1659 Venables St. | Dec. 2, 11 am-5 pm | Artisans shows, chocolate, pictures with pets, lots of fun things to do, with proceeds helping local animal rescues | Free

Candytown | Yaletown | Dec. 2 | Fun events for kids and adults, including gift mark, family photos, and a self-guided cocktail tour | Free

First Saturday Open Studios | Various locations | Dec. 2, 12 pm-5 pm | Come visit the artist-run open-studio event, see their art and buy some art | Free

Vancouver’s View Protection Policy: How It Developed and Was Implemented | SFU Vancouver at Harbour Centre | Dec. 6, 6:30 pm | A lecture on a key policy that is shaping Vancouver’s skyline | Free

Make it Vancouver | PNE Forum | Dec. 7-10, 5 pm | Check out and purchase handmade items for the holidays, and try some local food trucks. Tickets good all week |  Tickets $8

Winter Arts Market at Pacific Arts Market | Pacific Arts Market | Dec. 8-9, 1 pm-7 pm |  Early bird tickets free

IMAGE OF THE DAY

There’s been some really beautiful fog shots. If you have any, send them in and they could appear in the newsletter!

COMMUNITY HIGHLIGHTS

• Congrats to  ¿CÓMO? Taperia on five years in business. They have one of the best happy hours in Vancouver. [Vancity Lookout]

• Another crow video! This time it’s two juveniles who grew up in False Creek. [Reddit]

• Elevated boho chic is how Dovetail described itself, a new restaurant that leans into California influence, focusing on great ingredients. [Scout]

• What do you think of the new Mobi colour? [Reddit]

• A new smashburger restaurant called Kapow! Burger is opening up inside Electric Bicycle Brewing. [Vanouver is Awesome]

• Want to have your announcement featured? Learn how here.

GAME TIME

As a few of you pointed out, I forgot to include Vancouver Guesser on Wednesday. I’m including it again above. 

Can you guess where this image above is? Reply with the correct answer and your name to be featured in the newsletter.

Today is also Vancouver Wordle! Can you guess what today’s work is? Play it here.