Vote splitting analysis

Good morning,

You will have to excuse me if there are a few more spelling errors than normal in today’s newsletter, as I spent the entire day moving into my new place in Mount Pleasant. Since it was Feb.1, the roads were packed with U-Hauls driving around town. I hope everyone had a smooth move as I did!

Today’s main story looks at a trend that our sister publication in Ottawa spotted and may be something that poses a challenge for one side of the political spectrum this coming municipal election.

Let’s get to it!

— Geoff Sharpe, Lookout founder and managing editor

PS - If you find this newsletter valuable, please consider forwarding it to your friends. New to the Lookout? Sign-up for free. 

WEATHER

Monday: 9 🌡️ 7 | 🌧️

Tuesday: 12 🌡️ 8 | ☁️

Wednesday: 13 🌡️ 7 | ☁️

ANALYSIS

How potential vote splitting is playing out in municipal elections across Canada

The Lookout is in a somewhat unique position among smaller independent publications in that we have bureaus in both Ottawa and Vancouver. While it feels like both cities might be worlds apart, their upcoming municipal elections are looking eerily similar. 

Both mayors are vulnerable in their own way. But most importantly, both appear set to benefit from vote splitting on the progressive side of the electorate. 

Where each mayor stands

Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim sits in a somewhat uncomfortable position as he heads into re-election. The first three years were defined more by mistakes than policy-setting city-building. 

One council member, three elected park board members and one school board member all left the mayor’s ABC Party. News coverage increasingly focused on his wardrobe attire, his partying and gym habits, or his abrupt decision to try and shut down the elected park board. 

The result? A polling situation that puts the mayor in a tough spot, underwater on key issues, with by-elections that overwhelmingly elected two progressive opposition candidates. 

The dynamics in Ottawa are much different. Mayor Mark Sutcliffe’s career in media meant that he has navigated media criticism far better than his Vancouver counterpart. 

Controversial files such as the Lansdowne 2.0 development, Sprung structures to house asylum seekers and city budgets with high increases for police have been navigated more effectively, but he has not remained untouched. My colleagues in Ottawa note that there are rumblings in suburban areas, a key constituency for the mayor.

Both mayors represent the centre-right of their respective electorates. Both have made property taxes —albeit for Vancouver, a much more recent pivot to a zero per cent increase — a central part of their agenda. Both are dealing with communities facing public safety challenges: the ByWard Market in Ottawa and the Downtown Eastside in Vancouver, with both mayors touting major progress in improving those areas.

Yet voters who may yearn for change may face a real dilemma at the ballot box as progressive parties and candidates in both cities appear increasingly set on a path to split the vote. 

How the vote splits

THE AGENDA

🗳️ Green Party city councillor Pete Fry announced that he will be running for mayor in the upcoming municipal election. He said his campaign would offer a collaborative approach, in contrast he says to the current mayor. Read more. [CBC]

❌ Nate’s story on Friday about ICE protests in Vancouver was very timely. This weekend, Jim Pattison Developments announced that it’s no longer selling its Virginia-based property to ICE. The company provided no further information. 

🌳 Heads up for next Sunday, the east side of Stanley Park, along Park Dr., will be closed for a half-marathon on Feb. 8. Pipeline Road will continue to be open. 

🍺 Metro Vancouver is looking at allowing year-round alcohol use in some of their parks, after successful pilots in six regional parks in 2023 and 2024. In what is a surprise to no one who likes to drink in the park, the report on the pilot noted that “alcohol consumption can be effectively implemented with manageable impacts.” If Europe can do it, why can’t we? Read more ($). [Vancouver Sun[

❌ The Thomas Donaghy Overdose Prevention Site at 1060 Howe St. shut down on Saturday, after the property owner notified them to leave due to complaints. Health officials are worried about access to these facilities as overdose calls continue to rise. Read more. [CBC]

⚽️ If you thought the Canucks were a mess, well, the Whitecaps seem to be trying to one-up them. Negotiations between the Whitecaps and PavCo for the team to play at BC Place have not improved, even though the season starts in a month. The Major League Soccer organization also says the situation is untenable, with the team ranking last in MLS revenue. Read more. [SportsNet]

📉 Over in provincial news, the B.C. NDP are facing new headwinds, with the party down four points in voting intention. They are currently sitting at 44 per cent support compared to 38 for the Conservatives. Read more ($). [Vancouver Sun]

❄️ The warm weather on the South Coast may feel great right now, but it’s going to pose problems in the summer due to a lack of snowpack, which is key for keeping reservoirs filled. As of Jan. 1, the South Coast snowpack was 67 per cent below normal. Read more ($). [Vancouver Sun]

EVENT GUIDE

Chowder Cup 2026 | Heritage Hall | Feb. 5, 6:30 p.m. | An evening celebrating B.C. seafood, with eight chefs presenting their chowder recipes | Tickets $104

3rd Annual Chinatown Cocktail Showdown | Feb. 6, 5:30 p.m. | Iconic Chinatown bars serve Lunar-inspired drinks, with guests voting on their favourite | Tickets $105

Taste of Chinatown | Chinatown Storytelling Centre | Feb. 6-22 | Multiple events including Sip and Paint, Mahjong Parlours and Red Envelopes and Candy Tasting | Tickets various prices

Single, Not Single at The Improv Centre | The Improv Centre | Friday and Saturday until Feb. 28 | An improv exploration of relationships | Tickets various prices

PuSh International Performing Arts Festival | Various locations | Until Feb. 8 | Performance lineup with a variety of shows | Various prices

BIG BANG Festival | The Roundhouse | Feb. 15, 12 p.m. | Music, food trucks and more, a festival for younger audiences | Free entry, some special events $5

Family Fun Day at Coal Harbour Community Centre | Feb. 16 | Games, crafts, bouncy castle, baby playtime and more for families all day

Submit your event and it could appear here and reach 30,000+ Vancouver locals.

FROM THE ARCHIVE

How crows became a calling for one Vancouver man

Vancouver-area bird scientist Dr. Robert Butler’s fascination with crows started when he was about fifteen years old, when he rescued a crow with a deformed foot. By that point he was already interested in the natural world and in observing birds, and he soon decided he wanted to make it his life.

However, when Butler decided to do his master’s research on crows, he recalled how another graduate student was surprised and asked why he didn’t want to study puffins or something more interesting. 

“Back in the ’70s and at that time, you know, the people were starting to look at some of the other species around British Columbia, particularly the sea birds, which were of great interest to a lot of people,” says Butler.

Read the story

NEW VANCOUVER JOBS

Discover your new dream job in Vancouver:

• Supervisor, accounts payable/receivable at YMCA BC

• Communications assistant at City of Vancouver

• General manager at Henry Schein One Canada

• Lead product manager at Glu Mobile

• Business development consultant at Sun Life

COMMUNITY HIGHLIGHTS

• The Juno nominations featured a number of Vancouver artists, including bbno$. [Straight]

• Parq Casino is getting two new restaurants from the same company that runs Neptune Palace. [Vancouver is Awesome]

• Keep an eye out for a lost dog near Fraser and Prince Albert Road. He was last seen in the area on Jan. 31. 

• There’s till time to discover new places to eat at Dine Out Vancouver. And our free guide can help. 

• Want to have your announcement featured? Learn how here.

VANCOUVER NEWS QUIZ

PHOTO OF THE DAY

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