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These are the most interesting ridings to watch in Vancouver tomorrow
They range from comfortable leads but interesting candidates in Vancouver-Yaletown to a tight race and a lot of controversy in Vancouver-Langara
Good morning!
Tomorrow will mark the first time since the 2015 federal election that I won’t be covering election night, and while part of me is relieved to take a back seat, I will miss the adrenaline of it all. I’ll miss the pre-game snacking with my colleagues, as we put together a plan of coverage, the anticipation and release of tension each time the count is updated, and the post-election night drink to unwind.
Working in a newsroom fosters a certain kind of solidarity that is most exemplified on election night, and while I appreciate the freedom and flexibility of freelancing, I do miss that camaraderie. Funnily enough, I am detached enough from the election coverage that I, without thinking, made plans for Saturday evening that are entirely unrelated to the election — maybe I’ll even be able to go a few hours without obsessing over the vote count updates?
Anyway, today we’ve got a very topical top story for you: a breakdown of the four most interesting ridings in the election tomorrow, including a look at the candidates, the history of the ridings and anything interesting about each of them.
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WEATHER
Friday: 11 🌡️ 11 | 🌧️🌧️🌧️
Saturday: 13 🌡️ 12 | 🌧️
Sunday: 9 🌡️ 14 | 🌧️
Monday: 11 🌡️ 5 | 🌦️
PROVINCIAL ELECTION
These are the most interesting ridings to watch in Vancouver tomorrow
Elections BC/Google Maps
What’s going on: Tomorrow is election day, and we thought we would take a closer look at some of the more interesting ridings in Vancouver, including who the candidates are, what the polling is suggesting and anything else of note for each of those ridings. Because we have limited space, we’ll only be looking at ridings not considered “safe” by 338Canada for either the NDP or Conservatives.
Voting history for each riding will be primarily gathered from Wikipedia and confirmed with Elections BC’s historical results, while demographics for each riding will be gathered using the City of Vancouver’s “social indicators and trends” documents, compiled in 2020 based on the 2016 census (unfortunately, the 2021 census updates were expected this year but aren’t yet available). Vote projections, meanwhile, will be gathered by 338Canada’s riding profiles.
Vancouver-Langara
The riding: Oh boy.
This is by far one of the most interesting ridings. This riding has been a BC Liberal/United stronghold since its creation in 1991, held by a rotating cast from that party ever since its creation. Its most recent MLA, Michael Lee, announced in July that he wouldn’t run in this election, according to Canadian Press, meaning whoever takes over will be new.
Hugging the Fraser River to the west of Fraserview, this riding counts Marpole, the southwest corner of Sunset, an eastern corner of Kerrisdale and the south half of Oakridge as its constituent parts. All of these neighbourhoods have higher-than-average immigrant populations, and all but Kerrisdale has median incomes well below city-wide averages.
The candidates: Here’s where we get to the “Oh boy” of it all. As the BC NDP has been dropping its research on Conservative candidates, Bryan Breguet from this riding has been a prime target. The Langara economics instructor has been called out for making transphobic and racist comments. Breguet has responded to the allegations by saying his “intention wasn’t to be racist or offensive,” and that the “woke left” doesn’t care about issues facing racialized communities, according to CBC.
(A bit of disclosure: I took an economics course taught by Breguet at Langara in 2014. For the record — and maybe only to brag a little — I had the highest grade in the class, so I have no personal axe to grind there.)
Facing Breguet are NDP candidate Sunita Dhir, an immigrant services worker with SUCCESS, and Green candidate Scottford Price, an enrolment advisor at UBC.
Despite being a Liberal stronghold since its creation, this riding is viewed by 338Canada as a Conservative-leaning tossup, with Conservative and NDP odds of winning placed at 58% and 42%, respectively. The two are well within the margins of error in vote projections, at 47% and 46%, both ±8%. The Greens are projected to reach 8% (±4%).
Analysis: Given Breguet has been at the centre of a lot of the culture war discourse, it’s worth questioning, should this riding flip orange, whether any gains made by the BC Conservatives are because people are buying into the culture war, or if people are voting Conservative despite all of that, out of weariness with the NDP.
Vancouver-Little Mountain
The riding: This is a riding with history — but none of it recent. Vancouver-Little Mountain existed as a dual-member district from 1966 until the city was broken up into 10 single-member districts for the 1991 election, when it went to the BC NDP. It turned BC Liberal in 1996 before dissolving into its surrounding ridings in 2001. The riding has now been revived with the latest boundary changes, based on the 2020 census.
The riding straddles the East Van and West Side divide along Cambie Street. It largely sits between Main and Oak streets to the east and west. It’s situated mostly within the Riley Park neighbourhood, which lives somewhat comfortably, with median incomes significantly higher than the city average. It also has a relatively low number of immigrants, with nearly two-thirds of its population in 2016 being born in Canada.
The candidates: The riding is also interesting for its candidates, as it’s attracted a couple of relatively big names in local Vancouver politics. The Conservative-NDP fight here will be a showdown between the NPA and OneCity, with John Coupar representing the Conservatives and Christine Boyle representing the NDP. Coupar was an 11-year NPA park board commissioner until 2022, while Boyle, who beat out former councillor Andrea Reimer for the nomination, has been on city council since 2018. Running for the Greens is Wendy Hayko, who has worked in emergency management in a number of capacities.
As interesting as a Coupar-Boyle race is, the outcome is likely to be fairly comfortable for the latter, with 338Canada placing the odds at 95% likelihood of an NDP win and 5% for the Conservatives winning. The polling aggregator projects a 49% to 40% (both ±7%) vote breakdown for the NDP and Conservatives, with the remaining 11% (±6%) going to the Greens.
Vancouver-Point Grey
The riding: This is another riding with history, having been home to three different premiers. For most of its existence, since becoming a single-member district in 1991, it was held by the BC Liberals. The NDP held the riding from the beginning, but it flipped to Gordon Campbell in 1996 until 2011 when he resigned. Christy Clark briefly took his place in the riding, beating David Eby in a byelection, but had to parachute into Kelowna West after losing the seat to Eby in 2013.
The West Point Grey and Kitsilano neighbourhoods that make up the riding are notable for their wealth — the median family incomes were, respectively, $32,000 and $19,000 higher than the city average in 2016, and they both have relatively low immigrant populations. In fact, the most valuable home in BC, owned by billionaire and conservative activist Chip Wilson, is in this riding.
The candidates: The riding will see Eby facing off against Conservative candidate Paul Ratchford, an investment banker who campaigns for low taxes through the group StepUP. StepUP has been an active group on social media railing against property taxes and other taxes. Running for the Greens, meanwhile, is climate scientist Devyani Singh.
This one is similarly looking comfortable for Eby — it seems unlikely we’ll see another premier lose their seat in this election, with 338Canada giving the NDP a 93% likelihood of winning, compared to 7% for the Conservatives. The vote projection is well within the margins of error, however, at 49% and 40% (both ±7%), while the Greens are projected to receive 11% (±6%) of the vote.
Vancouver-Yaletown
The riding: This is another riding with high-profile candidates running — both of them again either directly or familially tied to local politics. It’s a new riding that, unlike Little Mountain, doesn’t have history prior to this election. 338Canada calculated the redistributed votes for this riding to be BC Liberal wins in both 2017 and 2020, with the party holding 5- to 7-point leads over the NDP.
The riding takes up everything downtown that sits between Burrard and the Downtown Eastside. While the city’s neighbourhood social indicators includes the DTES in its profile of downtown, it still leaves the neighbourhood with a median family income of about $20,000 higher than the city average, and median personal incomes $11,000 higher for male-identified individuals and $6,000 higher for female-identified individuals.
The candidates: Given the riding is new, it’s guaranteed to elect a rookie MLA — but not necessarily a rookie in politics. Melissa De Genova, running for the Conservatives, served three terms on city council and park board, while Terry Yung, running for the NDP, is married to councillor Sarah Kirby-Yung. The latter is an odd choice — Kirby-Yung is a councillor under the conservative ABC banner, and Yung has been known to support the federal Conservatives in the past.
Picking Yung, a VPD veteran, is further complicated by the fact that his rival in the nomination race, Jeanette Ashe, wife of former mayor Kennedy Stewart, dropped out, saying the party unfairly tipped the balance in favour of Yung. It also rankled some more progressive individuals, as it created a narrow difference between the Conservatives and the NDP — a choice between a former conservative councillor married to a cop and a cop married to a conservative councillor.
Running for the BC Greens, meanwhile, is Dana-Lyn Mackenzie, a lawyer and senior manager at UBC who has worked on the university’s Indigenous strategic plan and other Indigenous, equity and diversity initiatives.
While the riding is believed to have voted BC Liberal in the last provincial election, 338Canada projected the NDP with the highest likelihood of winning late last year until around May this year, when the Conservatives overtook the NDP in projections. The riding is now considered to be a relatively comfortable lead for the Conservatives, with a 92% likelihood of winning (8% for NDP). Vote projections give the parties 51% and 41% (both ±8%), while the Greens are projected to get 8% (±5%).
Analysis: The BC election is unlikely to be won or lost in Vancouver — as usual, the suburbs are where the battlegrounds are tightest. Of the five “toss up” ridings in Metro Vancouver, according to 338Canada, only one is in Vancouver. Two more, leaning NDP, are in Surrey, and another two, leaning Conservative, are in Richmond. Port Moody-Burquitlam is counted as “NDP leaning,” and Richmond-Queensborough is believed to be “CPBC leaning.”
With the election looking tight, however, every riding that could go against expectations is worth watching. But the one that will be most interesting in the city is Vancouver-Langara. While it’s unclear how many voters in the riding are tapped into The Discourse, including the controversy surrounding Breguet, it could be seen as a bellwether for how much identity politics is, or isn’t, factoring into the election.
Visit Elections BC to find out what info you need and where to vote.
VANCOUVER NUMBERS
🗳️ 28%: If early voting is any indication of turnout, this election will be a big one, with this percentage of all registered voters — just over a million in total — participating in early voting, according to Elections BC. [The Canadian Press]
☎️ 257: With all possible numbers already projected to be taken with the five existing area codes for BC — 604, 778, 250, 672 and 236 — the province is about to get this new area code starting in May next year. [CBC]
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WEEKEND GUIDE
Vote | Multiple locations | Tomorrow, 8 am-8 pm | Participate in democracy! | It’s free
The opening night of the highly anticipated debut solo show "Copy/Paste Culture" by Julian Thom is October 18th from 6 pm-10 pm at Fingerprint Gallery. [Sponsored]
BC Lions v Montreal Alouettes | BC Place | Tomorrow, 4 pm | It’s the team’s final game of the season | Tickets $25
Vancouver Horror Show Film Festival | Various venues | This weekend and next | Two weekends of horror-fuelled cinema | Tickets $22 per screening
Canyon Frights | Capilano Suspension Bridge Park | Oct. 11-31, 10 am-8 pm | A Halloween adventure for the whole family | Tickets $72
Harvest Days | Van Dusen Botanical Garden | Weekends until Oct. 20, 10 am-4 pm | See the famous garden transformed for autumn | Tickets $13
Jersey Boys | Stanley Alliance Industrial Stage | Until Oct. 27 | The Tony- and Grammy-winning musical is still in Vancouver for just over two weeks | Tickets $39
Stanley Park Halloween Ghost Train | Pipeline Road, Stanley Park | Until Oct. 31, 6-10 pm | All aboard for this spooky ride on the Stanley Park train | Tickets $17
The Woman in Black | Metro Theatre | Today until Nov. 2 | Susan Hill’s chilling ghost story comes alive, directed by and starring Bernard Cuffling | Tickets $30
THE AGENDA
🌧️ While early voting may indicate strong turnout in this election, that would buck a three-decade-long trend, as turnout has dropped from just over 70% in 1996 down to the 54-61% range seen since 2009 — and research shows the atmospheric river forecasted for this weekend may dampen (*ahem*) turnout on voting day this time around as well. [Vancouver Sun]
🥊 Chip Wilson and David Eby traded barbs in duelling op-eds this week, with the former claiming the NDP “breeds laziness” through wealth distribution, while the latter used the op-ed to say the Conservatives are billionaire-friendly. [Vancouver Sun]
💸 Though the parties have made their proposals for housing affordability this election, with the NDP saying the market alone won’t address affordability and the Conservatives saying government has gotten too in the way of private developers, one expert says neither party can control the “giant X factor” — interest rates. [The Canadian Press]
🧑🚒 While some have pointed to Seattle as evidence single stairwells can be workable in buildings up to six storeys, fire officials from… [checks notes] …Seattle are warning against rushing into that kind of a policy, noting their city has a strong fire response to compensate for the lack of a second stairwell. [CBC]
🧑⚕️ BC’s doctor shortage is seeing improvements, but physicians say the province still faces a “massive” challenge ahead of it to really address the crisis in family doctors. [Global]
COMMUNITY HIGHLIGHTS
The Canucks have tallied their first win of the year. [Daily Hive]
What was that filming at a Vancouver church? [Daily Hive]
Did you catch that comet? [Vancouver Is Awesome]
West Hastings will soon be near 221B Baker St. [Vancouver Is Awesome]
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Out of a tree that fell on a couple of houses arises a 15-foot ghoul.
GAME TIME
Today’s Vancouver Wordle may have something to do with election turnout tomorrow. See if you can guess it.
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