What population changes in Metro Vancouver tell us about the city

Good morning,

It’s not specifically a Vancouver story, but it’s important nonetheless — a federal watchdog says the reason food prices are so high is because of lack of competition. Who could’ve guessed having only three major grocery companies would be bad? It’s not like there’s any evidence they’ve colluded to raise prices… Oh wait.

But enough about my anger over expensive food that shouldn’t be expensive, you’re here for news about Vancouver. Today we’ve got:

• A deep-dive into problems of declining population 📉

• A decision on the controversial Keefer development ✅

• And what happened with that little fire in West Vancouver 🔥

Let’s go!

— Geoff Sharpe, Vancity Lookout writer

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WEATHER

Wednesday: 25 🌡️ 15 | 🌤

Thursday: 24 🌡️ 14 | 🌤

Friday: 23 🌡️ 13 | 🌤

CITY

Vancouver’s population problems

Two stories covering the issue of population changes in Vancouver and the surrounding area are shining a light on housing and the cost of living in cities.

What’s happening: Over in West Vancouver, the population is experiencing little growth amongst those 25-35, and the population is primarily those over 50, according to the Vancouver Sun.

• The culprit? Lack of housing for younger people, which forces them to leave the city, hollowing out a critical part of any growing community.

Here in Vancouver: West Point Grey faces a similar situation to West Vancouver. And no, it’s not related to them both having West in their name. The population in West Point Grey hasn’t grown in 25 years according to the Globe and Mail, staying stagnant at around 12,886 residents, with an average age of 40-64.

The chart above from the City of Vancouver shows a steady departure of younger people since 1986, as the community ages and younger people leave home. The higher number of 20-year-olds is likely due to multiple people living in one home.

According to the data, the share of the population that’s 65+ is four percentage points higher than Vancouver as a whole, at 19 percent compared to 15 percent.

• Common complaints: A consistent refrain from people in West Vancouver, West Point Gray, and Kitsilano is that projects like Jericho Lands and the new Sen̓áḵw development will destroy the unique character of the area. But that unique character tends to be built on unsustainable housing practices that force younger people to leave.

The problem: Without new development, people leave the city. This is reflected in population growth trends. Metro Vancouver cities experiencing an increase in population growth from 2016-2021 were Langley (13.1 percent), Surrey (9.7 percent), and Abbotsford (8.9 percent), compared to Vancouver’s 4.9 percent. The trend? They’re all on the outskirts of Metro Vancouver.

• Transit usage has also skyrocketed in these suburban areas, reflecting how people are forced to commute more into the city.

What it means: Neighbourhoods in Vancouver risk being hollowed out, becoming an oasis for older people, with fewer younger families as they flee to the more affordable suburbs.

The future: For many of Vancouver’s communities opposed to new developments, change is in the air. The Jericho Lands development near West Point Grey has 13,000 units planned, while Sen̓áḵw will have over 6,000. Whether or not the communities like it, change is coming.

VANCOUVER BY THE NUMBERS

👍 3.4%: The rate of inflation in B.C., down from 4.3 percent last month. The primary driver of inflation is still food prices, which anyone could’ve guessed by visiting a grocery store. [Business in Vancouver]

📈 5.5%: The expected unemployment rate in B.C. by late 2023, up from its current five percent. [Vancouver Sun]

💰 $4.1 billion: The expected cost of the Massey tunnel. It will have eight lanes that will go under the Fraser River and will take 10 years to complete. [Business in Vancouver]

⛽️ $1.97: The price gas is, on average, expected to drop tomorrow, down from an average of $2.09. [Urbanized]

WILDFIRES

Where there’s smoke, there’s a Vancouver fire

And you thought Vancouver was safe from the fires ravaging Canada…

What happened: Monday was a tough day for drivers as part of Highway 99 was shut down due to a brushfire near Whyte Lake, according to Reuters. The fire was approximately 500 metres from the Horseshoe Bay ferry terminal.

The details: The fire was around three hectares as of Tuesday. A detour was set up through Horseshoe Bay Drive to bypass the affected area, according to CityNews. Air tankers were brought in to put out the fire, which took about six hours to get it under control, according to Kamloops Now.

Aftermath: As of Tuesday morning, the fire was considered held. BC Wildfire Service suspects the cause of the fire was arson, which of course is exacerbated by dry conditions.

Around BC: Over in Port Alberni, three of the wildfires in the area are finally out. Unfortunately, two more fires were discovered near Roger Creek, both of which fire services say are suspicious and likely human-caused, according to Global.

• There have been 46 fires on the Island, up from two around this time last year.

DREAM HOME

Since our main story included West Vancouver, I thought it would be worthwhile to look at a dream home in that part of town, specifically, the expensive neighbourhood of the British Properties.

This home is a California-inspired spot, with 7,000 square feet of space, seven bedrooms and seven bathrooms (I assume so each guest can have their own?), plus a massive pool out front. In my opinion, the real gem is the main kitchen with a massive island to entertain guests, plus a movie theatre. The patio is also nothing to scoff at.

With this many bathrooms, you know this place will set you back a lot.

DEVELOPMENT

Keefer gets the go-ahead

What happened: The controversial development on Keefer, which has taken over seven years to render a decision, was approved unanimously by the development permit board on Monday, according to the Star.

Why the controversy: Local community groups have opposed the development at every turn, saying the building will contribute to gentrification and does little to help low-income seniors and residents who live in the area. But many local business and community groups — some who originally opposed it — supported the redesigned development, arguing it would help revitalize the area.

• The building will include 111 condo units, with 10,400 square feet of retail and restaurant space on the ground floor, according to Urbanized.

A history lesson: Back in 2017 the original proposal included 25 social housing units for seniors, but as part of the downsized new proposal that reduced the number of stoeys to address citizen concerns, those units were removed.

What it means: As noted by the board, they did not have the power to require certain types of housing, only to approve it. While it’s a unique project in terms of length of approvals, it illustrates the challenge inherent throughout Vancouver in balancing community demands with the need to build more housing.

CITY HALL

You get a property tax increase, and you get a property tax increase

I know, I know, four stories in one newsletter? But today was a busy day and if you’re a property owner, you’ll want to read this.

What happened: Council was presented by city staff with what can only be described as a real downer for them — jack up city taxes by nine percent annually for the next five years, or cut services, according to the Vancouver Sun, to make up for a projected budget deficit.

• That would amount to $ 116-year increase for a strata owner and $304 for a detached home, according to iHeartRadio. The city must balance its budget and cannot run a deficit.

Why oh why: Staff collective bargaining agreements are up, and like other areas of employment across Canada, wages will need to rise. Tax and utility fee increases are also slated, and of course, there’s that pesky thing called inflation…

The hope: A blue-ribbon panel of experts will report to council in October on ways to save money, with the budget for 2024 expected to be passed in December.

The Lookout’s viewpoint: If you’re going to give back tax money to developers and hire 100 new police officers, you’ve got to find savings somewhere. With a massive tax increase last year, it’s unlikely ABC — who it should be noted are generally considered fiscal conservatives — would be willing to accept such a tax hike. The only alternative is service cuts…

THE AGENDA

🚨 Gunfire was exchanged between police and a man at 3 am in West Vancouver. The man was struck by a police vehicle and taken to the hospital. The Independent Investigations Office of B.C. is investigating. [CTV]

🥵 Get ready for some scorching weather next week, with temperatures set to feel like 30ºC on July 4. [Daily Hive]

🏢 As part of Mayor Ken Sim’s promise to open a satellite office in Chinatown, the city announced the office will open in the city-owned Chinatown Plaza building. [Urbanized]

🪧 Protestors marked the second anniversary of the heat dome that killed 600 people in the summer of 2021. They called on the government to do more to prevent heat-related deaths. [CityNews]

❌ Heritage businesses run by families throughout Vancouver face challenges staying alive in the face of expanding chains and redevelopment. [Vancouver Sun]

🔥 A fire broke out at Bar Susu, near Main Street and East 6th Avenue, with 30 firefighters fighting the blaze. Luckily they will only be closed for a week. [Daily Hive]

🪲 Don’t pass go, and don’t bring your plants to a different location. To fight the invasive Japanese beetle, most of the city is under restrictions to not move plants or soil to different locations. [Vancouver Sun]

👎️ The city issued an apology for asking low-income seniors to leave Chinatown Plaza Mall, who were coming together to do tai chi. The lesson? Don’t mess with seniors! [CBC]

VIDEO OF THE DAY

Long-time readers know I have a real love of Vienna housing. This YouTube video gets into the details of why city housing is so much more affordable than in other Western countries.

ARTS

Theatre

Bard on the Beach’s Julius Caesar is described as a “gutsy vision” in the latest review of the popular theatre performance and is a contemporary mashup which anyone can appreciate. [Stir]

Music

Texas performer Shakey Graces is coming to town on Oct. 11, and his music is described as “boho blues” and “rural folk.” Fun! [The Straight]

Bif Naked sat down the Georgia Straight to discuss her career, life and the history of her song Lucky. [Georgia Straight]

Movies

It’s the summer of 80s movies at VIFF. Come check out John Carpenter’s Escape from New York this Thursday at 9:45 pm.

Art

Art as Post-It notes? It’s real. Called “Sticky: A Post-in Note Art Show,” you can catch it on July 7 and 8 at Burnout Cafe. [Daily Hive]

Come by the Chinese Storytelling Centre to learn about the stories of people affected by the Chinese Immigration Act of 1923, and how it came to define a generation in Canada. [Stir]

The Vancouver Mural Festival will add 20 new murals to check out over the 10-day event, from Aug. 4 to 13. [CTV]

COMMUNITY HIGHLIGHTS

• Good news dog owners — the Park Board approved new and upgraded off-leash areas in city parks. [City of Vancouver]

• Destination Vancouver has a helpful guide for the Punjabi Market on Main and East 49th, including Indian food, shopping and festivals. [Destination Vancouver]

• Damn, Daniel! As someone who’s done the Grouse Grind, I am in shock that Daniel Sedin did it 11 times in one day. [Vancouver is Awesome]

• Check out this video of planes dousing the West Vancouver fire. [Reddit]

• Vancouver is getting a new SPCA shelter, replacing the old one. [BC Government]

• Congrats to Downlow Chicken on five years of business. They’re celebrating with new menu items like Popcorn Nuggets and new sandwiches like Chips n Dip. [The Straight]

GAME TIME

Congrats to Kani who guessed the correct answer to Monday’s quiz — the answer was one percent of Vancouver rentals are considered affordable.

Today’s VancouverGuesser is another SkyTrain station. Can you name this spot? Reply with the correct answer and your name and you’ll be mentioned in the newsletter.