Five takeaways and three questions from the Vancouver municipal by-election

What happened: In what can only be described as a blowout, two progressive candidates, COPE’s Sean Orr and OneCity’s Lucy Maloney, ran away with both Vancouver city council by-election seats, in an election marred by frustrations over long lines.

Breaking it down: Orr and Maloney won 34,448 and 33,732 voters respectively. The next closest was Colleen Hardwick of TEAM for a Liveable Vancouver with 17,352. Mayor Ken Sim’s ABC Party candidates Jaine Stein and Ralph Kaisers placed 7th and 8th, with 9,267 and 8,915 votes.

• Both newly elected councillors said they plan to push back against Mayor Ken Sim and his ABC Party, according to CTV.

Our team has analyzed the results and here are our biggest takeaways and questions from the by-election. 

A massive failure in planning

If you went to vote yesterday, you likely had to wait… for a long time. There were many reports of wait times of over two hours at polling locations across the city. It ended up being the biggest story of the by-election, eclipsing the actual results, as hundreds of people took to social media to vent about delays.

What happened: According to the Vancouver Sun, the expected number of voters was far higher than anticipated, with election officials modelling the number of voters, and planned polling stations, based on the previous by-election in 2017.

• There were early indications this might happen, with advanced voting lines earlier in the month also clocking in long wait times. The city said they added an additional 45 staff members for turnout after that, but that didn’t change the outcome. 

The cause of higher turnout: Voter turnout was 15 per cent, 40 per cent more than the 11 percent in the last 2017 by-election. The election in 2022 saw a 36.3 per cent turnout.

It’s impossible to place it on one specific reason for the higher turnout. The combination of ongoing controversies at city hall, the anger around the Broadway Plan and the nature of by-elections, which are one of the few opportunities for voters to push back against incumbents, all created a perfect storm of higher by-election turnout.

• While turnout was higher, the problem was compounded, and likely made far, far worse, by the council’s decision, put forward by staff, to cut the number of polling stations and staff by two-thirds, according to CBC.

City manager Paul Mochrie even issued a statement the next day apologizing for the long lines, saying it was “unacceptable,” according to CTV. 

Not a good night for ABC

If you’re the mayor or a member of his party, there are certainly warning signs with under two years until the next election. 

Not motivated: One ABC campaign staffer told CBC reporter Justin McElroy that they expected 16,000 of their voters to turnout. The reality? ABC by-election candidate Jamie Stein only received 9,267 votes along with 8,915 for Ralph Kaisers. Even with 16,000 voters turning out, they would’ve placed well behind the over 33,000 votes the top two winners received.

Announcements fail to move the needle: There was a flurry of policy changes and big announcements from ABC in the lead-up to the election, including a pause on supportive housing and a police crackdown on the Downtown Eastside. But it clearly failed to motivate their voters.

Progressive vote showed up: Centre-right parties in Vancouver tend to win when there is a split on the progressive side. While Ken Sim ran away with the election in 2022,  there was a strong vote splits for councillors between the Greens, OneCity, Forward Together, COPE, Pogress Vancouver… You get the idea.

• By-elections aren’t general elections. But there were very few positive takeaways for the mayor and his party.

OneCity is here to stay

Background: The municipal party OneCity managed to win its first council seat back in the 2018 municipal election with Christine Boyle. In the 2022 blowout where ABC won seven seats, OneCity managed to hold onto their sole seat along with the Greens. With Boyle leaving for provincial politics, there were questions about whether it was Boyle’s popularity that maintained their seat, and if the party had any staying power.

• Well, that’s answered: OneCity’s by-election candidate Lucy Maloney got 33,732 votes, a little less than the 5,000 that Boyle achieved in 2022.

What it means: A defeat in this by-election would’ve made any sort of comeback during the next municipal election more challenging. But this win shows that the party is clearly more than just Christine Boyle, and the will likely continue to be a force on council. 

Campaigns matter

There’s a saying in politics that campaigns matter, that organized teams and the candidates’ actions have an impact. It’s more than just positive media coverage that ca win an election.

Takeaway: While purely based on my observations and thoughts from my colleague Nate, Sean Orr ran arguably the most visible campaign, both online and in the real world, racking up endorsements and generally being more present and capturing attention than other parties and their candidates.

• One interesting note: Orr didn’t get the endorsement of the Vancouver District Labour Council, a powerhouse organization that is a mover and shaker in progressive municipal politics. That could be interpreted as another sign that his campaign overperformed compared to others. 

But the long-term impact is unclear, especially on key issues

By-elections are not usually indicative of the future, but rather a statement on the present, and while there are certain signs portending to the future, it’s usually the most mobilized voters who turn out.

Thought-bubble: Sometimes one issue can be a galvanizing force that drives voters to the polls. This by-election doesn’t really seem to be the case, but rather a conglomeration of numerous issues including the Broadway Plan, ending the park board, ending the building of supportive housing, and many self-inflicted wounds by the mayor and his party.

• It’s hard to determine if this is a long-term trend that could impact the next election or a one-off change.

Now that’ve broken down what we think the by-election means, here are some questions that remain.

Did the Broadway Plan matter? 

What happened: The Broadway Plan has taken up much of the oxygen in the city and by-election debates. Only TEAM’s Colleen Hardwick and Theodore Abbott took a definitive position opposing the plan and wound up third and fifth. While third may sound good, Hardwick was almost 17,000 votes behind second-place Maloney.

Hardwick herself outperformed Abbott by around 4,000 votes, with 11,581 for Abott and 17,352 for Hardwick, likely owing to her name recognition. Much of their campaign was based on this policy stance though.

• What it means: It’s worth questioning whether opposition to the Broadway Plan is by itself a winning enough issue, or even more broadly, whether a party dedicated to opposing building any new housing in the city actually has enough of a constituency of voters.

Will progressives coordinate again? 

An under-reported aspect of the campaign was that three of the major progressive parties coordinated within the by-election to prevent vote splitting, with COPE, OneCity and the Greens each nominated one candidate rather than two, according to the Tyee.

Looking ahead: Vote splitting is a major issue for progressive parties. Their success, with COPE and OneCity’s candidates both winning, could set the stage for future coordination, which would pose a challenge for ABC.  

Who will run for mayor?

I hate to pivot to the next municipal election, but there will be one candidate who will be crowned the frontrunner against Mayor Ken Sim in the next election. Many pundits thought Christine Boyle would step up, given her vocal opposition. But with her gone now as an MLA, the field is open.

Speculation: Pete Fry has given no indication he wishes to run for mayor in the years he’s been on council. One of these newly elected candidates is the most likely one to step up and run for mayor. The question, is who will?

What I’m watching for: Who takes strong stances on council? Who gets the media attention that Boyle was able to harness? Who starts organizing early? We’ll be keeping an eye out.

• Dig deeper: While published before the by-election, here’s an interesting Walrus story on the mayor’s plan to fix housing centred around police. 

Nate’s thoughts

Nate doesn’t usually write the Monday newsletter, but given how much he covered the by-election — interviewing every single major by-election candidate I might add! — I wanted to get his thoughts on the results.