How potential vote splitting is playing out in municipal elections across Canada

The Lookout is in a somewhat unique position among smaller independent publications in that we have bureaus in both Ottawa and Vancouver. While it feels like both cities might be worlds apart, their upcoming municipal elections are looking eerily similar. 

Both mayors are vulnerable in their own way. But most importantly, both appear set to benefit from vote splitting on the progressive side of the electorate. 

Where each mayor stands

Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim sits in a somewhat uncomfortable position as he heads into re-election. The first three years were defined more by mistakes than policy-setting city-building. 

One council member, three elected park board members and one school board member all left the mayor’s ABC Party. News coverage increasingly focused on his wardrobe attire, his partying and gym habits, or his abrupt decision to try and shut down the elected park board. 

The result? A polling situation that puts the mayor in a tough spot, underwater on key issues, with by-elections that overwhelmingly elected two progressive opposition candidates. 

The dynamics in Ottawa are much different. Mayor Mark Sutcliffe’s career in media meant that he has navigated media criticism far better than his Vancouver counterpart. 

Controversial files such as the Lansdowne 2.0 development, Sprung structures to house asylum seekers and city budgets with high increases for police have been navigated more effectively, but he has not remained untouched. My colleagues in Ottawa note that there are rumblings in suburban areas, a key constituency for the mayor.

Both mayors represent the centre-right of their respective electorates. Both have made property taxes —albeit for Vancouver, a much more recent pivot to a zero per cent increase — a central part of their agenda. Both are dealing with communities facing public safety challenges: the ByWard Market in Ottawa and the Downtown Eastside in Vancouver, with both mayors touting major progress in improving those areas.

Yet voters who may yearn for change may face a real dilemma at the ballot box as progressive parties and candidates in both cities appear increasingly set on a path to split the vote. 

How the vote splits