How bad would an earthquake be for Vancouver? Really bad

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Good morning,

If you’ve been thinking, geez, the BC weather and ongoing natural disasters sure have been tough on Metro Vancouver, then you’d be right. And now a new report has shed light on just how damaging one of those, namely an earthquake, could be for the city. We break it all down in today’s top story.

And for those who missed Nate’s profile of the popular Eastside Culture Crawl, we’ve got a link to that story as well.

Let’s dive in.

— Geoff Sharpe, Lookout managing editor

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WEATHER

Wednesday: 11 🌡️ 8 | 🌧️

Thursday: 11 🌡️ 6 | 🌧️

Friday: 9 🌡️ 5 | 🌤️

CIVIC UPDATE

How bad would an earthquake be for Vancouver? Really bad

While it’s a beautiful city to live in, Vancouver is increasingly dealing with challenging environmental and natural disasters that could pose problems in the years and decades ahead.

A report to council by city staff looked at how an earthquake could affect privately owned buildings in the city. It paints a devastating picture — a 7.2 magnitude quake would result in 6,100 heavily damaged buildings, with 1,350 injuries, $17 billion in damages and displace one-third of residents, up to 231,000, for up to three months. 

Risk areas: The city looked at different neighbourhoods to understand the risk scenarios for each one. The areas with the greatest risk are near Stanley Park, the West End, downtown Gastown, Chinatown and False Creek. These are all areas with both older and taller buildings. Most of these areas have renters, affecting 70% of the population in those neighbourhoods. 

• The majority of casualties and displacement would occur in concrete mid- and high-rise multi-unit residential buildings, as well as wood and unreinforced masonry multi-unit residential buildings. 

West End: The popular neighbourhood would especially be hit hard — 50.9 percent of the buildings were built in or before 1972, before seismic design provisions. Modelling suggests 20 per cent of people displaced would be in the West End, with 36 per cent of the buildings being extensively or severely damaged. Even more startling is that 95 per cent of the area’s population would be disrupted or displaced for 90 days. 

• This image shows where the highest-risk concrete mid- and high-rise residential buildings are located, with the majority (32 per cent) in the West End. 

Unequal impact: Like many problems in the city, the most vulnerable and low-income people will be impacted the most, as an earthquake of that magnitude would disproportionately impact affordable housing stock. The report estimates most of the affordable housing stock would

What comes next: The city will be engaging with stakeholders in 2025 to determine more insights and potential challenges to mitigating risks. With this information, the city would develop a seismic risk reduction strategy for private buildings to be voted on in 2025. 

Will new building requirements mitigate rainfall issues?

Anyone following the news lately will have seen the flooding problems plaguing the city and the region. Some modelling has rainfall could increase in BC by six per cent over the next 28 years (though you’ll be forgiven for thinking it’s much more). 

The problem: Vancouver’s infrastructure isn’t up for the task or the budget required. According to the Vancouver Sun, the city owns $34 billion in infrastructure, needing to invest $800 million annually for upkeep and repairs. Unfortunately, the city only invests around $300 million each year, meaning the infrastructure deficit grows by $500 million a year. The sewers have not been able to keep up with the higher rain flow, causing sewage overflows during heavy rainstorms.

One solution: The city is looking at requiring new smaller buildings, like houses, duplexes and multiplexes to install the tanks. Water is stored in these tanks, then slowly released back into the system rather than all at once during a rainfall. This is already a requirement for larger condo and high density buildings.

• Costs rise: It’s expected that adding these requirements would increase home costs by $15,000-$25,000 for developers.

What it means: In many ways, this is another example of the inequality of existing homeowners versus newer residents. Rather than raise taxes to pay for the infrastructure, the city is saddling new homes with the costs, which trickle down into higher home costs and bigger mortgages. Is it fair that only one group is paying for a collective benefit? Water tanks are a great solution, but the proposed process certainly exacerbates and ongoing problem of inequality in the city of current homeowners versus future homeowners. 

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THE AGENDA

🪧 The labour dispute at Vancouver and Montreal ports is going to binding arbitration after the Minister of Labour Steven MacKinnon intervened on Tuesday. This is the second time this year the government has intervened in this manner. One expert said that it disincentivizes employers to bargain because they know the government will intervene. Around 1,200 longshore workers were locked out by their employers after rejecting the company’s latest offer. [Vancouver Sun]

🎉 It’s Grey Cup week and that means fun, but also road closures. From Nov 8-18, expect some roads to be closed, including Canada Place from Thurlow to Howe Street. Others on Nov. 16 include Robson from Cambie to Beatty and Beatty from Smithe to West Georgia. More info can be found here. [CityNews]

🏠 Seems like there are quite a few of these derelict homes. One of them located at the 1300-block of Arbutus Street, was assessed at $4 million and needed the city to put up fencing around it because it was in danger of collapsing. [Global News]

⚽ And with that, the Whitecaps season is over. After a slow decline at the end of the season, losing four of their last games, the team managed to beat the Portland Timbers for a wildcard playoff berth. The team managed to come back in a 3-0 victory to take the series to a third game, which they eventually lost 1-0 on Friday to Los Angeles FC. The last time the Whitecaps made it to the semifinals was in 2017. [CBC]

🅿️ YVR parking rates are set to change. Starting today, the first 30 minutes are free, with each additional 30 minutes costing $14, with a daily maximum of $65. The goal is to reduce traffic congestion in the area. [Urbanized]

🖼️ A new exhibit at the Chinese Canadian Museum honours Chinese Canadian soldiers who fought in the First and Second World Wars, even though they weren’t recognized as citizens or had the right to vote until 1947. The exhibit will be called “A Solider For All Seasons” and will open in spring 2025. [Vancouver Sun]

👮 A man was arrested on Friday for brandishing a knife neat Crosstown Elementary school, shortly after 3 pm. The man is in jail awaiting charges. [CTV]

EXCLUSIVE

The people and art behind the Eastside Culture Crawl

This weekend, we published a massive story on the Eastside Culture Crawl, the people, and the challenges that the popular event faces. We’re republishing it here in case you missed it. The story is written by Nate Lewis. me

Eric Neighbour pokes his head around the corner, looking up Industrial Avenue toward Main Street. It’s a crisp fall day in early November, a blessedly dry day after a fortnight of street-scrubbing, tree-shaking rain and wind. 

Neighbour, a sculptor and painter, is welcoming me to his studio in the days before the Eastside Culture Crawl. The Crawl, as it’s affectionately known, is a much-anticipated annual showcase of visual art running from November 14 to 17 in 55 locations across East Van’s industrial areas. 

“It’s a full house, so we’ll have to be fairly low key,” Neighbour, who strikes me as soft-spoken in a soothing way, tells me as we step inside the pleasantly warm two-storey industrial building. A week out from the event – which will welcome thousands of people into artists’ studios across the East Side – the open, bright studio is humming with quiet energy. It’s a large space, with over 20 artists nested into all sorts of nooks and crannies, which are brimming with furniture, supplies and other sundries, and art pieces, both finished and under construction. 

Sitting in his corner studio, Neighbour tells me how, in the early to mid 2000s, he created a number of large sculptures and enlisted the public (as many as 1,400 people for one) to physically participate in the projects. 

Read the story

HOUSE OF THE WEEK

It’s been a while since we’ve done a truly massive home.

And really, it doesn’t get much bigger or more ostentatious than this. Located in the University Endowment Lands, this building was built in the 1930s, and features a whopping 7,070 square feet, with five bedrooms, six bathrooms, some hideous coloured walls and immaculately detailed lawns.

It comes with a price tag that even I found a little much, even for Vancouver…

House of The Week is a home selected by the Lookout team and is not a paid advertisement. All ads are labeled as such. If you’re a realtor who wishes to feature your home in our newsletter, please contact our sales team. 

ARTS GUIDE

Theatre

Vancouver’s most fun all-ages theatre experience returns with East Van Panto: Robin Hood, starting Nov. 20 at Cultch Theatre. 

What happens if you play limbo in limbo? That’s the premise of The Last Resort, a performance at the Waldorf Hotel, about a ship that sailed too close to the Bermuda Triangle. The performance is immersive, involving audience members. [Stir]

Music

The Orpheum has a series called Silent Movies, where they film movies from the 1920s, with accompanying live music, including a pre-show concert. Movies include Good Night Nurse, April Fool, Mighty Like a Moose and many more. 

Raphaël Feuillâtre was born in Djibouti, and raised in Western France is an up-and-coming guitarist who won the 2918 prestigious Guitar Foundation of America. He’s performing at the Vancouver Playhouse on Nov. 24. 

Movies 

Bird | VIFF Centre | Opens Nov 15 | Catch VIFF festival favourite Bird, starring Barry Keoghan, Franz Rogowski and Nykiya Adams, as it returns to the big screen | Learn more [Sponsored]

The European Union Film Festival is on from Nov. 14-28, with movies from all 27 EU member states. 

Art

It’s the Eastside Culture Crawl, on from Nov. 14-17 throughout the Eastside. You can read the program here, along with an interactive map with all the artist location listings.

Show Listings

• Vancouver Civic Theatres - see events

• Firehall Arts Centre - see events

• Roundhouse Community Centre - see events

• Arts Club Theatre Company - see events

• Vancouver Symphony Orchestra - see events

• Rickshaw Theatre - see events

• Vogue Theatre - see events

• The Roxy - see events

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Someone snapped this photo from somewhere in Vancouver. Very zen!

COMMUNITY HIGHLIGHTS

• Here’s a heartwarming story about a Black BC Battalion lieutenant who was awarded the Military Cross. [Vancouver Sun]

• Shop and dine in downtown Vancouver for your chance to win tickets to the most anticipated concert of the year this December! Learn more. [Sponsored]

• These comparisons of massive celebrity homes versus Vancouver homes are always very funny (and depressing). [604Now]

• Local downtown business 911 Pizza is selling $9.11 pizzas in honour of first responders. [CTV]

• Here’s a helpful guide for all the Grey Cup events in the city. [Straight]

• Want to have your announcement featured? Learn how here.