What will impact housing costs in 2024? (Hint: It’s likely not government policy)

Good morning, 

It’s been a terrible year for snow sports in BC, but speaking selfishly for a second, I picked a great year for my regular ride up to Cypress Mountain to move up north to the Yukon. Okay, so she actually moved up north the year before, but last winter doesn’t count because I’d been laid off and wasn’t exactly thinking about expensive sports this time last year.

Now that I’m in a financially sound position again, it was a bit disappointing to lose my two or three Cypress rounds per year with that friend, but as it turns out, I’m not missing out on much. Maybe by the time I find another ride, we’ll be back to our regularly scheduled snowboarding season!

— Dustin Godfrey

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WEATHER

Wednesday: 6 🌡️ 2 | 🌦️

Thursday: 3 🌡️ -10 | 🌨️

Friday: -3 🌡️ -7 | 🌦️

HOUSING

What’s the outlook for housing in 2024?

Background: Last year saw provincial and federal governments getting serious about housing as the crisis throughout the country continues to rage out of control. The BC government in particular made a spree of wide-ranging housing announcements throughout the year, but especially in the last few months.

It’s unlikely any of them will have much impact in 2024 — building new housing, for instance, takes years. And while there could be some signs of gestation, the biggest influence may yet be out of the control of elected politicians.

It’s the interest rates, isn’t it?: It’s the interest rates. Economists are expecting a potential “turning point” in the housing market this year, according to The Canadian Press, which pointed to signs the Bank of Canada could ease off the brakes with its influential interest rates.

• The Bank of Canada spent much of last year raising interest rates, but as inflation appeared to cool towards the end of the year, it has held the rate steady over the last three periods, last raising it in July. The central bank has tried to put on ice any optimism that rates will remain where they’re at, let alone start to come down, by saying it could still raise the rate this year, according to CBC reporting in December.

But economists watching the housing market have been anticipating cuts to the interest rates since at least December — with some telling The Canadian Press this week that the cuts could begin as early as the second quarter of the year. And that could bring more activity to the housing market.

So the interest rates are working? The effect of the interest rate hikes on inflation does see some debate. The Bank of Canada, unsurprisingly, holds firm to the belief that it is a strong influence, saying in October that “higher interest rates are working to ease price pressures in Canada and inflation is coming down.”

But economists with the Centre for Future Work have tended to argue otherwise, with the centre’s director, Jim Stanford, writing in August the easing of inflation to that point “had little to do with higher interest rates.” Just a few months prior, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives economist Marc Lee noted on Twitter that the rate hikes made inflation worse by increasing mortgage costs.

• In fact, Lee similarly argued in July, as the bank bumped the rate up by another quarter of a percent, that increasing rate hikes were counterproductive to addressing inflation, and particularly the housing crisis: “It contributes to inflation by increasing borrowing costs for mortgage holders. It adds to financing hurdles for new housing construction.”

What does it all mean? Interest rate cuts, economists told The Canadian Press, could lead to more activity, and therefore cause some housing price increases later this year. But borrowing (pun not intended) Lee’s logic, the long-term effects could be more market housing construction, potentially keeping longer-term housing cost increases at bay. Whether that brings more affordable housing to those who need it most — or second-most, for that matter — is another question.

One thing to watch on that front, something provincial columnist Rob Shaw projected to be an “influential entity” in this election year, will be the provincial government’s BC Builds program. Where the province focused largely on market measures last year, this year’s big splash will likely be a public housing program.

What does BC Build? That’s still yet to be announced. Shaw wrote that it should be a “marquee piece” of the budget this February, and it will lean into the public housing realm. That’s an area where many housing economists have said has been sorely lacking over the last several decades.

VANCOUVER NUMBERS

❤️‍🩹 1: The number of times this life-saving tiny pacemaker implant surgery had been done in Canada before giving life to three-month-old baby Jonithin Logan in November. Jonithin’s surgery and the first, done just a few months prior, were both done at BC Children’s Hospital, alongside some other rare cardiac surgeries performed there recently. [Vancouver Sun]

📈 490: That’s how many cannabis stores there were in BC as of the end of September, an 8.4 percent increase over the year prior. And while revenue is also increasing, more competition means lower prices — good news for consumers, but tougher for shops. [Vancouver is Awesome]

💰 0: The $500-million fund to protect apartment building sales from purchase by predatory housing investment firms has bought that many units since it was first announced a year ago Friday. It has, however, given pre-approval to acquiring 25 housing projects, with a combined 1,400 units, at a cost of $300 million. [Vancouver Sun]

COMMUTE

If the strike doesn’t impact your commute, the snow may well

Oh, so we’re finally getting snow?: Yes! The forecast on Environment Canada is currently calling for a chance of flurries on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, as well as overnight Sunday and into Monday, as the province enters a cold spell for the first time since October.

Throughout that time, the forecast at most has a 60 percent chance of flurries, but mostly it sits at around 40 percent, according to Environment Canada. But early next week, The Weather Network suggests the snow could pile up 10 cm in some areas of Metro Vancouver. And if it does, you know what that means.

Oh, no! Oh, yes. As the Obamas would say, when they (clouds) go snow, we (traffic jams and crashes) go high! Everybody remembers Snowmageddon 2022, but it seems unlikely we’ll get hit anywhere near that bad. 

• Still, it seems as though every time it snows even a little bit, the roads go haywire — nobody is prepared, including the cities who have to dust off the snow plows for their once-annual usage. It also includes…

The buses: The bus system is seemingly never prepared for the snow, and it is hard to put too much blame on them — this is, after all, a once-in-a-year event. But the timing of this year’s snowfall is interesting.

The transit workers’ strike: The union representing transit supervisors began taking job action over the weekend, with all 180-plus workers now refusing overtime throughout the Coast Mountain Bus Company system, which operates 96 percent of TransLink’s bus routes, according to Vancouver is Awesome.

While CUPE Local 4500 warned this week could see some affected commutes, according to CBC, CMBC told VIA on Monday that there hadn’t been any impacts to its operations yet. 

• That could change, however, with inclement weather — the union told VIA there could be buses lost to “unaddressed maintenance issues” with supervisors not available to help address the interruptions that “naturally occur across the system.”

Could this put pressure on CMBC?: The company currently says the 25 percent wage increase over three years is “not realistic,” calling that the “sticking point” in the negotiations, according to Daily Hive. But if harsh weather messes with too many bus routes, it’s possible the weather could act as a natural bargaining chip for the union to achieve their wage goals, or to land somewhere closer to them.

THE AGENDA

🏡 Thinking of co-ownership in this housing market? One woman says her experience with another woman she isn’t friends with has become “unbearable,” and is asking the BC Supreme Court to force the sale of the $3-million Kitsilano property they share. [Vancouver Sun]

🏘️ If co-ownership sounds unbearable to you, however, new rules from the province could offer another solution — the six-plexes that could be dotting neighbourhoods near bus stops are “the future,” according to an architect who submitted four of 19 development permit applications so far before the City of Vancouver. [Vancouver Sun]

🏙️ If the city has plans for its next big hire, they aren’t giving anything away yet. City hall has yet to see a new chief planner since the previous one left in September last year, which SFU City Program director Andy Yan said is an “important job at a critical time.” [BIV]

🚨 A dog died after falling six storeys from a Downtown Eastside apartment, and the VPD says it’s still investigating whether the dog fell or was thrown. [Global]

🛜 BC sometimes touts the Lifeguard smartphone app, which calls emergency services if a person doesn’t shut off a timer they set before using drugs, but if they don’t have internet access, it’s not much use. That’s why one advocate is calling for increasing access to free public Wi-Fi in the area. [CTV]

🧑‍⚖️ A Syrian refugee is claiming in a lawsuit that he was sitting outside his home smoking a cigarette when a police dog attacked him, and the officers then told him to stop attacking the dog. The injuries reportedly resulted in a C. difficile infection, leaving him unable to continue working or studying. [Global]

🔬 New tests for cervical cancer on the way for BC residents are nearly twice as accurate as existing screening, and unlike pap smears, the tests can be done at home with a self-swab kit that is then mailed out for testing. [CityNews]

🏔️ The Arc of teryx bends towards justice — at least for now. The famous Vancouver outdoor apparel company, Arc’teryx, has won a temporary injunction against Adidas using the brand name Terrex for a store near the former’s Kitsilano neighbourhood, using what Arc’teryx says includes a similar logo to its own. [CTV]

🚒 Anyone need a fire truck? Okay, this isn’t exactly Vancouver news, but hey, if you’re willing to travel to Powell River to buy it from the city and have $1 million to burn, why not? [Global]

ARTS

Theatre

Juliet lives! Stuck in a time loop, she’s tired of dying just because her lover, Romeo, as the Straight puts it, never learned to take a pulse. She wants out of the cycle of tragedy, and she’s taking her plan of escape to The Cultch’s stage from Feb. 8 to 18. [Straight]

We’re PuSh-ing one week till Vancouver’s international performing arts festival kicks off with Returns, an installation bringing together dance and re-assembled retail clothing, and Lorenzo, an autobiographical telling of comedian Ben Target’s move to take care of his uncle during the pandemic.

Canada’s Wild West is full of queer history, and who better to tell that story than the creator of the Really Gay History Tour? The Queer Frontier: The Untold Story of Canada’s Wild West is running at The Junction on Jan. 21 at 3pm.

Music

Wondering what to look forward to this year? The Straight has a list of some upcoming concerts, from City and Colour to Madonna to The Trews, to jam out with in 2024. [Straight]

Movies 

If you can never get enough of David Bowie as the Goblin King and Jim Henson’s puppetry (and who can?), Labyrinth is showing this Saturday at 12 pm at the Rio. Or if the incoming snow is any inspiration to you, you can always check out the late-night Friday showing of John Carpenter’s The Thing at 11:15 pm.

If an engrossing courtroom drama is more your vibe this weekend, check out Anatomy of a Fall — which earned director Justine Triet the third-ever top prize at Cannes awarded to a woman — at the VIFF Centre theatre at 11:45 am on Sunday.

Art

Jillian Christmas was named the Vancouver Art Gallery’s inaugural Poet-in-Residence, a role in which she will work with VAG staff to “extend gallery programming while enhancing and elevating conversations that emerge through the gallery’s exhibitions and with the public.” [Vancouver Sun]

COMMUNITY HIGHLIGHTS

• Get a look at the community’s past, as the Vancouver Sun and Province make their negatives from the 1960s to 1994 available at the City of Vancouver Archives. So far, 32,479 of an estimated 250,000 envelopes of negatives, with a combined 5.6 million images, have been catalogued. [Vancouver Sun]

• From Italian food, to seafood, to udon, here’s a list of five new restaurants to look forward to opening in 2024. [Vancouver Magazine]

• If you’re ever up on the Grouse Grind, first of all: why? That sounds terrible. Second: comedy legend Jack Black sees you and hears you, and he recommends ordering a smoothie once you’ve mastered those steps. [Straight]

• You like free meals right? Who doesn’t? Well, an Instagram post of yourself watching the Netflix series You Are What You Eat: A Twin Experiment is your ticket to exactly that at the local To Live For Bakery. [Daily Hive]

• If you are what you eat, then we’re about to take flight, as the St. Louis Bar & Grill offers all-you-can eat chicken wings for $20 until Feb. 4. [Daily Hive]

• Listen, you’re not always in the community, and that’s fine. We all need alone time. For that time, The Tyee’s culture writer, Dorothy Woodend, has a suggestion: goblin pants. [The Tyee]

• Want to have your announcement featured? Learn how here.

DREAM HOME

A famous home from a famous architect

This home, called Eppich House II, was designed by the legendary Vancouver architect Arthur Erickson, but it has other claims to fame: according to Maclean’s, which notes the house is on sale for $10.8 million, it has starred in a 2019 Liam Neeson action film, as well as music videos for Dove Cameron and Sarah McLachlan.

House of The Week is a home selected by the Lookout team and is not a paid advertisement. All ads are labeled as such. If you’re a realtor who wishes to feature your home in our newsletter, please contact our sales team.

GAME TIME

This Google Street View image captures construction on the Broadway subway — can you guess which station will be nearby? Reply with the answer and your name to be mentioned in the newsletter.

Also, due to a technical mix-up, the winners of Monday’s quiz will not be announced until Friday.