What to expect when you’re expecting a transit death spiral

In a lot of ways, the start of the spiral is no one’s fault. When COVID swept across the globe in 2020, it upended the underlying logic of transit systems almost everywhere. Ottawa was no exception.

But since 2020, OC Transpo has been slower to recover ridership than other cities across the country. At the same time it has struggled with an LRT line beset by problems, and a bus service plagued by unreliability.

As a result, ridership has lagged. Now, OC Transpo has announced that starting Aug. 26, it will cut LRT service in half during off-peak daytime and nighttime hours.

This, many people and councillors have warned, could be the start of a “death spiral.”

As uOttawa Telfer School of Management Prof. Lavagnon Ika explained, the cuts are often a short-term fix to budget shortfalls, but lead to bigger problems down the road.

• “It’s a normal quick management fix to cut investment in the services, but at the same time we have a paradox here, in the sense that if you cut into services, because you were lacking ridership that it leads to less ridership. Then it aggravates the problem. And at some point you’re pushing people into their cars,” Ika said.

The allure of a quick fix is hard to pass up. The budget has a hole, so fix it by cutting back service. “In the short run, it seems to be a good move to make when you cut services because your budget is not on par with expectations,” he said. “This same quick maintenance which makes sense in the short run will backfire, paradoxically it leads to less ridership and create more of the problem.”

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