A deep dive into recent housing announcements

Good morning,

Living alone, meal planning can be a lot — food goes wasted too often, or it’s too much hassle to make one meal at a time, etc. I’ve tried a couple meal prep services, and they’re okay, but I’ve found myself lately just making a week’s worth of dinner at a time and eating that for a week straight. I know some people get sick of food faster than that, but I fortunately am fine with it.

However.

Most recently, I made a chicken masala recipe, and it had a section to make a masala paste. I figured it would be enough to make one batch, but it turned out the masala paste was enough for at least four batches. Probably more, because by this last batch — the fourth straight week making this — I kind of piled the paste in to get it over with. I love curry. And honestly, I could probably do another week of it if it came to it. But four straight weeks of the same dinner (with breaks here and there, of course) has been a lot.

Though, I did manage to fine-tune the recipe, so next time I commit myself to four straight weeks of curry, I will be ready.

In today’s newsletter, we’ve got a closer look at a couple of housing announcements — one from the BC NDP prior to the election call, and the other from the BC Conservatives on Monday — that may not go so far to address the housing crisis, with a focus on what it means in Vancouver.

—Dustin Godfrey, freelancer

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WEATHER

Wednesday: 16 🌡️ 10 | 🌧️

Thursday: 14 🌡️ 11 | 🌧️

Friday: 16 🌡️ 8 | ☀️

HOUSING

A closer look at recent housing announcements

What’s happening: It’s an election, as you’re likely aware, and housing is in a bad way right now, as you’re likely also aware. While it probably won’t be a one-issue election, housing will almost certainly play a big role in the outcome. So what are the parties promising to do about it, what is missing and what does it mean for Vancouver?

Background: Housing continues to be out of control in Vancouver, with the average one-bedroom unit in Vancouver going for $2,761 in August, according to the monthly Rentals.ca report. Going out to Burnaby, that rent drops a bit to $2,566.

• There have been articles lately suggesting we’re in a “buyer’s market” in real estate, but despite sales slowing 17.1% in Metro Vancouver year-over-year in August and listings rising 4.2%, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association, there hasn’t been a corresponding drop in prices. The benchmark price for all residential properties, at nearly $1.2 million, is just 0.9% below last year.

Mortgage relief: It’s still early days in the election, and the parties haven’t announced their full platforms yet, but the two main parties made announcements recently relating to mortgage (and, in the case of the BC Conservatives) rent subsidies.

• The BC NDP’s announcement, which came as a government announcement just prior to the election being called, is more specific to a particular project — that is, the xʷməθkʷəy̓əm (Musqueam), Sḵwx̱wú7mesh (Squamish), and səlilwətaɬ (Tsleil-Waututh) First Nations’ Heather Lands project just west of Queen Elizabeth Park — though they hinted that it could be expanded. The BC Conservatives’ announcement was an election pledge that applies to all housing.

BC NDP: The government announced last week that it would cover 40% of the mortgages on up to 2,600 units of housing in the Heather Lands project, according to CBC. The units will be sold under a 99-year strata leasehold from the First Nations, with studios to be sold to buyers for $372,000, one-bedroom units to be sold to buyers for $510,000, 2-beds going for $780,000 and three-beds going for $900,000.

BC Conservatives: The party announced on Monday that it would bring in an income tax rebate on rent and mortgages, with people eventually able to write off up to $3,000 per month in provincial income taxes. It would begin with rebates on housing up to $1,500 a month in 2026 and increase by $500 a year to the $3,000-per-month mark by 2029.

The cost: Each of these programs would be fairly costly, with the BC NDP’s program slated to run $670 million — a cost that would be recovered either after the 25-year mortgage, or when the owner sells — while the BC Conservatives estimate their program to run $900 million in the first year and will ultimately leave a $3.5-billion hole in the budget when the write-off reaches $3,000 a month. 

The savings: The Conservatives estimate their program, once fully implemented, will average out to $1,600 to $1,700 per year, and it would be means-tested to cap the rebate for household incomes of $250,000 a year or less. Although the savings on the BC NDP’s Heather Lands mortgage help are only temporary, it would dock $248,000 to $600,000 off the original mortgage.

The questions: Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives senior economist Alex Hemingway told the Vancouver Sun it’s not clear if the Conservatives’ rebate would be a refundable tax credit or a deduction. In the latter case, he said, it would be of little use to those who pay little in taxes and not be a big help to those who need it most.

• As the Heather Lands agreements are for 99-year leaseholds, it’s not clear how the value of those homes will change over the course of the 25-year mortgage, with a quarter of the leasehold lifespan consumed by the end of the mortgage — at which point, the owner of the leasehold will be on the hook for the remaining 40% of the mortgage.

What they don’t address: Neither policy addresses what experts broadly agree is needed in one form or another: supply. Although there are differences in the type of supply needed — on one end, any and all supply will do, while the other pushes for public and co-op housing specifically — there’s a near consensus that policy needs to be aimed at building more of it.

• In fact, some economists suggest subsidies for rents and mortgages would only drive those costs up. University of Toronto economist Rob Gillezeau said on Twitter that the “main impact of this hugely expensive tax change would be to dramatically inflate both home prices and rents.” This, notably, was similar to the critique of the BC NDP’s renter’s rebate it campaigned on in 2017 and then introduced several years later.

On supply, the two parties contrast more significantly. The BC NDP has been seeking to increase supply by strictly regulating vacation rentals and bringing more rentals back on the market, and through other measures like transit-oriented development and ending single-family zoning. The BC Conservatives haven’t put out much of a plan yet, however, the party has come out hard against both the supply measures and the vacation rental measure.

Analysis: The Conservatives’ announcement for the rebate said the proposal is “not another band-aid solution,” but as Hemingway wrote on Twitter, it is “a textbook example of a band-aid solution.” And the same applies to the BC NDP’s Heather Lands deal, which is ultimately an extension of a mortgage.

• In the case of the BC NDP’s policy, it’s effectively splitting mortgages into two — a backgrounder provided in the government’s press release notes the remaining 40% would be paid back either in a lump sum after the 25-year mortgage, or more likely, it would be repaid through a second mortgage.

One of the big lessons from the 2008 crash was supposed to be that programs that enable people to take on more debt without addressing the actual causes of housing insecurity are risky. But while it may benefit buyers, the biggest beneficiaries of this, it seems, will ultimately be lenders, who will see a whole new stream of debtors who are saddled with more debt than they could otherwise take on and for longer.

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VANCOUVER NUMBERS

💰 $1 million: Repairing the Jericho Pier, which was destroyed by storms, is going to cost this much. It’s expected to be open by the summer. [Vancouver Sun]

🌾 600: The number of workers on strike at grain terminals in Metro Vancouver, as the Grain Workers Union Local 333’s bargaining with the Vancouver Terminal Elevators Association broke down. [Global]

🏥 60%: Patients who leave hospitals early, against medical advice, are this much more likely to experience an overdose within the next month, when accounting for risk factors like age, sex and housing status, according to a new study out of UBC. [CBC]

😶‍🌫️ 6%: The dream of homeownership is a distant one for many, with only this many Vancouver non-owners sure they will own their own home in the city, while 86% believe there’s little to no prospect of it, according to a new poll. [CityNews]

HOME OF THE WEEK

Oh, to live in a bright red boathouse adorned with horns. You could get a sailor’s cap and adopt a bird for your shoulder, maybe find a white whale to spend the rest of your days obsessing over. As the listing says, it doesn’t get more waterfront than this.

House of The Week is a home selected by the Lookout team and is not a paid advertisement. All ads are labeled as such. If you’re a realtor who wishes to feature your home in our newsletter, please contact our sales team.

THE AGENDA

🤝 HandyDART workers have ratified a contract proposed by their union and Transdev, the company that operates the accessible transit service, putting an end to a months-long labour dispute that culminated in a strike on Sept. 3. [CBC]

💊 Retired chief coroner Lisa Lapointe joined the BC Greens to endorse their election pledge to expand safer supply of drugs as a way to deal with the toxic drug crisis, including a non-prescriber model for safer supply. Greens Leader Sonia Furstenau accused other party leaders of “dehumanizing rhetoric” against drug users. [CBC]

📉 Violent crime in the first six months of the year is down 7% for Vancouver compared to 2023, but it is still above pre-pandemic levels, according to the VPD’s public safety indicators report. Downtown saw a slight increase, while the west side saw a 22.8% decline. [Vancouver Sun]

🏢 The BC Real Estate Association says the province should dial back its short-term rental regulations, calling for some exemptions from the rule rather than a ban across the board. [CityNews]

💉 BC Conservative Leader John Rustad said he would close all supervised consumption sites in BC and replace them with intake centres for treatment, somethig that experts say would cost lives. [CTV]

😬 The three party leaders in BC will have their one and only debate of the election at 6:30 pm on Oct. 8 (11 days before election day and two days before the first advance voting day), with a consortium of networks televising and streaming the debate. Angus Reid Institute president Shachi Kurl will be moderating the debate. [CTV]

🏚️ A VFS student got into housing in the West End, only to find the walls were cardboard. He’d moved to Vancouver from North Carolina and found the two-bedroom unit, in a CAPREIT building, but marketed by Harrington Housing, had been subdivided into four bedrooms. [CTV]

📃 Still not sure what went down with the BC United? Here’s a good explainer, including where some of the candidates will be going (or not going) this election and beyond. [Vancouver Sun]

🗳️ The Vancouver Park Board voted Monday in favour of a motion to remain “a democratically elected board” accountable to the people of Vancouver, and to work with the city to set a new funding formula, among other resolutions. The board says it will seek to generate a “revitalized mandate” for the 2026 election. [CityNews]

🚔 Vancouver police officers will be trained in naloxone use, and will carry the life-saving drug, after complaints to the police board that officers were not able to help reverse overdoses because they didn’t have them available. [Vancouver Sun]

💄 Workers at Lush are getting laid off, as manufacturing in Vancouver is moved to Toronto and a wood shop in the province is shut down. The brand wouldn’t say how many jobs would be lost, claiming privacy concerns. [Vancouver Sun]

🚨 If you’re going to the airport today, don’t worry about the emergency crews. They’re just pretending. (By which we mean they are conducting a training exercise.) [CityNews]

ARTS

Theatre

IndieFest is getting its fifth run in November, with a theme of Transformation and Transcendence. The festival is put on by Re:Nassance Opera, and it mixes live performance with technology to bring immersive storytelling. [Straight]

Summer is barely over, but the next Bard on the Beach season has already been announced, including productions of Much Ado About Nothing, The Two Gentlemen of Verona, The Complete Works of William Shakespeare (Abridged)[Revisited][Again], and The Dark Lady. [Straight]

Music

If you’re feeling Fucked Up, you’re not the only one — the band will be playing The Pearl tonight at 8 pm. [Straight]

The prolific composer Hans Zimmer will be bringing some of his work — from Gladiator to The Lion King to The Dark Knight — to Rogers Arena on Oct. 6.

Movies 

Vancouver actor Drew Ray Tanner is set to star in Sidelined: The QB and Me, a film adapted from the web-novel on Wattpad by the same name, which has been read over 31 million times. [Vancouver Sun]

Unsure what to check out at VIFF this year? The Vancouver Sun has a list of 11 must-see films here, and the Straight has its own list of must-sees here.

Art

With the National Day for Truth and Reconciliation coming up, here’s a list of Indigenous murals you can find around the city. [Daily Hive]

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COMMUNITY HIGHLIGHTS

• Check out this kid’s models of Vancouver infrastructure. [Vancouver Sun]

• Does this Vancouver restaurant have the best paella in the city? Short answer, yes.

• A comet will be passing through our (stellar) community. [CBC]

• You wouldn’t need to go far to dip your toes in a whole lot of cranberries. If that’s your thing. [Daily Hive]

• “How do you do, fellow kids?” asks the Vancouver Maritime Museum. [Daily Hive]

VANCOUVER GUESSER

Today’s Vancouver Guesser is an oval-shaped park in a sparsely populated neighbourhood. Can you name the park? Reply with your name and answer to be included in the newsletter.